Judgment and Decision Making in Football Betting
In a complex, dynamic football betting environment, human error remains an inescapable threat. It can manifest anywhere anytime. Judgment and decision making is one of many fallible influences to success in football betting.
We shall discuss decision-making strategies and the role of habit in dangerous decision making that may result in a serious loss.
What is the psychology of judgment in the mind of a soccer bettor?
How do management decision-makers and punters assess the level of risk involved?
How is the likelihood of an event determined?
The way we make some decisions more likely than others, the rationality of our decisions and the vagaries of our mental processes that lead to less than favorable decisions at times have become a major concern surrounding football bettors nowadays.
This is an informal decision rule that applies when we judge the likelihood that an uncertain event is one of a specific category. To what degree is this case a match to that category? With a lot of past diverse experience, this is useful for meaningful evaluation of information before punters decide on the appropriate course of action.
Matches that are readily available in memory, or easily brought to mind, are judged as more likely. Uncommon matches that are highly vivid tend to be judged mistakenly as more likely to happen. The emphasis and extent of discussion of an uncommon match make it more memorable. Availability can affect risk perception in judgment, the likelihood of a vivid but uncommon event is overestimated, whereas that of an uneventful but common one is downplayed.
For instance, Arsenal thrashed West Brom last season. So you took Arsenal thinking that they are going to produce same or similar results this time?
DISCOUNTING AND AUGMENTATION
How many alternative explanations do we explore when we explain a case? How many signs, or clues, do you rely on to confirm a football bet outcome or prediction?
The process of discounting refers to the tendency to stop looking for other causes of explanations once a plausible cause for a situation is found.
Did you take the team because the top goal scorer is playing? Without taking into consideration that some first team players are missing due to injuries or suspensions?
Are you a regular visitor of some football betting forums? Do you often read up postings from other users that claim to have valuable information about their friends, bosses or insiders?
Chances are they are bookies revealing wrong details to make you confused and end up with a bad decision.
Interesting Notes on Bookies
One thing’s for sure, the big boys know it all. They are the ones who arrive with the soccer odds and handicaps for the market. Big bookies are armed with researchers, statisticians, analysts, psychologists and all kinds of handicappers.
They would get a decent picture of a football match results before the match even starts. They would also probably know which teams you were gonna bet on before you even knew which team was playing which. (That’s what the psychologists are for.)
Bookies have sufficient information to make you lose your hard-earned money in the long run if you do not have reliable information on the football matches.
Ask Yourself What Do You Want Actually
Are you tired of giving a sizeable chunk of your income to your bookie every now and then?
Instead of feeling down about losing your hard-earned money, wouldn’t it be nice to have extra cash to indulge your loved ones and yourself in holidays, a nicer car, a bigger home etc? I leave this to your imagination.
Would you like to be making extra dough from football betting instead of it being a loss-making hobby?
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